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???板??浼?涓?璐㈠?″??浣?涓?缁╂????宸???瀹?璇???绌?!--<$[??棰?]>end-->

??甯??堕?达? 2020-05-14 10:11:01 ?ユ?锛? 姹?瑗胯储缁?澶у 浣???锛?

?????   琚???    灏?妗??? (姹?瑗胯储缁?澶у?) 

[??瑕?]????浠?012??2017骞??′?甯????镐负??绌舵?锋???瀹?璇?妫?楠?浜?璐㈠?″??浣??ㄦ??璧?????????璧?寮哄害?????拌?藉??涓?绉???寰?涓?璐㈠?″??浣?瀵逛?涓?缁╂????宸???褰卞??????绌跺???帮?璐㈠?″??浣??ㄤ?绉???寰?涓?锛?瀵逛?涓???缁╂????宸???涓烘????捐???崇郴?宠储?″??浣???互姝e????楂?浼?涓???缁╂??????绌惰〃??锛?淇?????搴︾??璐㈠?″??浣??婚??涓???璋?璐㈠?″??浣????ㄧ??????戒???????浼?涓?缁╂??锛?淇?杩?璐㈠?″??浣??????板??浼?涓??板??跨?硅浆????

[?抽???]璐㈠?″??浣?锛???璧?????锛????拌?藉??锛?浼?涓?缁╂??

[?洪??椤圭?? 姹?瑗跨??绀句?绉?瀛﹁???椤圭????瑰???凤?17GL08锛???姹?瑗跨?????插??绉?瀛︽??????绌堕」????瑰???凤?GJJ170326锛?

涓???寮?瑷?

?ㄧ?娴??板父??涓?锛?缁?娴?澧??垮?ㄥ???变?缁???澧??跨?硅浆???扮??澧??跨?广??????锛????藉??ㄥぇ???扮??澧??跨?癸?瀵逛????板??浼?涓?????灞??ヨ?锛???ソ????璧?涓????版椿?ㄨ?藉?淇?杩????????板??浼?涓???缁╂????????璁烘????璧?娲诲?ㄨ??????版椿?ㄩ?介??瑕?浼?涓???瓒冲???璧???????锛?濡???浼?涓??宠?浣跨哗??寰??扮ǔ姝ュ??匡?灏卞?椤讳?????????璐㈠?″??浣??ユ弧瓒充?涓?????璧?涓????版椿?ㄦ????璧???锛?骞惰冻浠ュ?瀵逛?涓???澶??ㄧ?????????甯︽?ョ??涓?纭??椋??┿????姝わ????′?璐㈠?″??浣?瀵逛?涓???璧????扮??杩?涓?浣????瀵逛???楂????板??浼?涓?缁╂??锛?浠ュ??瀵绘?浼?涓??板??跨?瑰?锋????瑕?浣??ㄣ??

浜?????璁哄????????璁炬????/span>

?ㄨ储?″??浣?涓???璧??????归???璐㈠?″??浣??戒?璇?浼?涓?璧???娴???绋冲?渚?搴?锛?涓?瀹???璐㈠?″??浣?????????互??楂?浼?涓?????璧?????锛???浣?浼?涓?澶??ㄨ??璧????????缂?瑙f??璧?涓?瓒筹?Denis??Mckeon锛?2012锛???浣?缁???浜虹?????蹇????????琛?涓猴?浼?????浼?涓???????????璧?锛???浣???璧?????锛?Officer锛?2011锛????ㄨ储?″??浣?涓???璧?寮哄害?归???璐㈠?″??浣???澶?灏??ㄤ?瀹?绋?搴︿??冲?浜?浼?涓?????椋??╄?藉??锛???涓?杩??藉奖????璧???????璧??崇???褰?浼?涓??锋????璧??轰??讹?杈?灏???璐㈠?″??浣?浼???浣???璧?寮哄害锛??????村?璐㈠?″??浣???负浜??藉???浣???璧??轰?锛??叉?浼?涓???缁??ョ?跺?垫?跺??锛?Myers ??Majluf锛?1984锛???Marchica ??Mura锛?2010锛?璁や负浼?涓???杩?棰???璐??鸿?藉??婊¤冻浼?涓???璧?????瑕???浣?Duan??Yoon(1993) 璁や负杩?澶???璐㈠?″??浣?浼?瀵艰?磋?搴︽??璧????ㄨ储?″??浣?涓????拌?藉???归?????缁??х?????拌?藉????/span>???板??浼?涓????锋???????规?????瑰???????绌惰?涓猴?褰?璐㈠?″??浣?杩?澶??讹??变?绠$????????蹇???寮?????娆′??崇?浼???浣?浼?涓??????版????锛?Tan??Wang锛?2010锛?锛?浣?璐㈠?″??浣?浣垮?绠$????瀵逛?涓???璧?婧??锋??寰?澶х????富??锛?瀵逛??㈢储?у???颁??锋???捐????淇?杩?浣????姣????广??缈?娣?????濮?瀹?寮猴?2017锛???浣?杩?灏???璐㈠?″??浣?璧?婧?灏?浼??剁害???板??浼?涓?瀵逛?????璧????????躲????褰??版???ワ?浠???褰卞?????拌?藉????

缁间?锛????板??浼?涓?渚????村????韩娌?娣??х??璐㈠?″??浣?璧?婧?锛??蜂??????ㄥ?舵??璧?????????璧?寮哄害?????拌?藉??绛??归?????涓????板??浼?涓?璐㈠?″??浣?璧?婧???淇?????涓???锛?涓??¤矾寰?瀵瑰???板??浼?涓???缁╂??浼?浜х??涓???????宸?????姝わ????虹??绌?/span>浠ヤ???璁撅?

?ㄥ?朵??′欢涓????????典?锛????板??浼?涓?缁╂????宸??璐㈠?″??浣???姝g?稿?冲?崇郴??

涓???瀹?璇???绌?/span>

锛?涓?锛???绌舵?锋??/span>

????浠ユ勃娣变袱甯?2012-2017骞?/span>A?′?甯????镐?涓虹??绌舵?锋????????版?版????瀹??存?э????や??稿?宠储?℃?版????ㄧ?????搞???ㄦ??虹?涓????や?ST??*ST?锋?????缁?寰???/span>8299涓????????㈢??绌舵?锋?????锋??腑涓?甯????告???崇??璐㈠?℃?版???ユ?浜?Wind?版??????芥嘲瀹??版???(CSMAR)锛??朵腑?ㄥ???版??负??宸ユ?寸????涓轰??垮????绔??煎??寮?甯稿?煎???褰?缁?????褰卞??锛?????瀵规????杩?缁????????兼????/span>1%??99%姘村钩杩?琛?Winsorize缂╁熬澶?????

锛?浜?锛???褰?妯″??

???板??浼?涓?渚????村????韩娌?娣??х??璐㈠?″??浣?璧?婧?锛??蜂??????ㄥ?舵??璧?????????璧?寮哄害?????拌?藉??绛??归???涓烘?楠?涓??¤矾寰?瀵瑰???板??浼?涓???缁╂??浼?浜х??涓???????宸????浠?????缓绔?浠ヤ?妯″???ユ?楠?璐㈠?″??浣?瀵圭哗????宸???褰卞??锛?

 

 

 

 

?ㄦā??锛?13锛?涓????OA琛ㄧず涓轰?涓???瀹???缁╂??涓?????缁╂??????宸???ㄦā??锛?11锛?涓????OA涓鸿?瑙i??????锛?琛ㄧず涓虹哗????宸?/span>=瀹???缁╂??ROA-????缁╂??EXPROA??ROA??涓轰?涓???瀹???缁╂??姘村钩锛?瀵逛?exp ROA锛???浠?????/span>Cyert ?? March锛?1963锛?绛?锛?exp ROA??娴????瑰?涓猴?

    

?ㄦā??锛?13锛?涓??涓轰?涓??????叉????缁╂??锛???/span>t-1骞村???哥???昏?浜ф?ラ????琛¢??锛?涓哄????/span>i???ㄨ?涓????哄????/span>i澶??朵????哥?t骞存?昏?浜ф?ラ???????硷?浠h〃????锛?????''Log??likelihood''??澶у?肩??锛????????ㄧ?浜?0.5??缁?????

锛?涓?锛???杩版?х?璁″????

琛?/span>1??绀轰?妯″??涓昏?????????杩版?х?璁★?浠??锋????????宸??ョ??锛??锋??????璧?????????璧?寮哄害?????拌?藉????缁╂????宸??藉??ㄤ?瀹???宸????涓??╃??????宸??澶э?璇存????涓??涓??????拌?藉??宸??姣?杈????俱??瀵逛????哥哗????瑷?锛??????锋????缁╂?????间负5.7锛??冲ぇ浜????哥哗????涓???帮?璇存????涓????????哥哗??澶?浜?骞冲??姘村钩涔?涓?锛?杩??????轰?涓?????璧?????????璧?寮哄害?????拌?藉??绛???绱?瀵圭哗????褰卞??缁?????

琛?/span>1  ??杩版?х?璁?/span>

Variable

?锋????/span>

骞冲????/span>

??灏???/span>

涓????/span>

??澶у??/span>

????宸?/span>

Invest

8299

-0.00180

-0.130

-0.0140

0.350

0.0590

Investment

8299

-2.900

-6.400

-2.800

-0.330

1.100

Innovation

8299

58

1

24

1255

104

?ROA

8299

0.0680

-18

0

12

3.400

FS

8299

0.0860

-29

0

30

11

Du

8299

0.250

0

0

1

0.430

Lnasset

8299

13

11

13

17

1.200

Lev

8299

42

5.500

41

86

19

Grow

8299

0.160

-0.460

0.120

2.100

0.300

Age

8299

2.300

1.400

2.300

3.300

0.550

State

8299

0.360

0

0

1

0.480

锛???锛?瀹?璇?缁???

?ㄨ储?″??浣?瀵逛?涓?缁╂????褰卞??涓???浠??????涓?绉???寰?杩?琛???褰?????锛?骞跺?ㄨ〃2涓???剁???杩?琛?浜??ュ?????ㄨ〃2涓????锛?1锛?????锛?2锛?????锛?3锛?????负?ㄦ??璧?????????璧?寮哄害?????拌?藉??涓?绉???寰?涓?璐㈠?″??浣?瀵逛?浼?涓?缁╂????褰卞??锛???浠???互???猴???璁哄?ㄥ???绉????典?锛?浼?涓???璐㈠?″??浣?瀵逛?涓?缁╂???藉???板?烘???涓???/span>1%姘村钩?捐?????崇郴锛???琛ㄦ??璐㈠?″??浣?????楂??戒?瀵逛?涓?缁╂??浜х??淇?杩?浣??ㄣ???冲?ㄥ?朵??′欢淇???涓??????碉?璐㈠?″??浣??藉?淇?杩?浼?涓?缁╂??????楂?????璁鹃??杩?妫?楠???

琛?/span>2 璐㈠?″??浣?涓?缁╂????宸?????褰?缁???

(1)

(2)

(3)

VARIABLES

?ROA

?ROA

?ROA

FS

0.0206***

0.0217***

0.0212***

(0.00533)

(0.00533)

(0.00534)

Invest

-1.045*

(0.615)

Investment

-0.191***

(0.0355)

Innovation

0.00105***

(0.000400)

Du

-0.0305

-0.0240

-0.0327

(0.0868)

(0.0866)

(0.0867)

Lnasset

0.186***

0.194***

0.131**

(0.0476)

(0.0475)

(0.0512)

Lev

-0.0106**

-0.0112***

-0.0100**

(0.00418)

(0.00418)

(0.00419)

Grow

3.170***

3.140***

3.139***

(0.127)

(0.126)

(0.126)

Age

0.252***

0.197**

0.248***

(0.0874)

(0.0877)

(0.0873)

State

-0.238**

-0.263***

-0.231**

(0.0934)

(0.0934)

(0.0933)

Constant

-2.513***

-2.910***

-1.851***

(0.622)

(0.625)

(0.660)

Observations

8,299

8,299

8,299

R-squared

0.088

0.091

0.089

Standard errors in parentheses

*** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1

????绋冲?ユ?ф?楠?

??????杩??挎?㈠??????????杩?琛?绋冲?ユ?ф?楠?锛?骞跺?ㄨ〃3涓??ュ??浜?妫?楠?缁???????浠????存????缈??????ユ??锛?2013锛?锛?灏?缁╂????宸????板?涔?涓轰?涓?骞存????棰?娴?缁╂?????讳?涓?骞寸??????缁╂??锛??充负?ROA锛??ㄨ??????璧?????????璧?寮哄害?????拌?藉??涓?绉?娓???瀵逛?涓?缁╂????宸???褰卞??锛????????拌?琛?OLS??褰???锛???娆¤???浼?涓???璐㈠?″??浣?瀵逛?涓?缁╂????宸?负姝e???捐???崇郴??

 

琛?/span>3  璐㈠?″??浣?瀵逛?涓?缁╂????宸???绋冲?ユ?ф?楠?

(1)

(2)

(3)

VARIABLES

?ROA

?ROA

?ROA

FS

0.0177***

0.0175***

0.0192***

(0.00501)

(0.00502)

(0.00501)

Invest

2.548***

(0.578)

Investment

0.0595*

(0.0335)

Innovation

0.00203***

(0.000375)

Du

0.0194

0.0214

0.0235

(0.0815)

(0.0816)

(0.0815)

Lnasset

0.412***

0.420***

0.327***

(0.0447)

(0.0447)

(0.0481)

Lev

-0.0106***

-0.00995**

-0.00862**

(0.00393)

(0.00394)

(0.00394)

Grow

0.135

0.199*

0.188

(0.119)

(0.118)

(0.118)

Age

-0.854***

-0.831***

-0.848***

(0.0821)

(0.0827)

(0.0820)

State

-0.132

-0.140

-0.151*

(0.0878)

(0.0880)

(0.0877)

Constant

-2.047***

-2.073***

-1.070*

(0.584)

(0.589)

(0.620)

Observations

8,299

8,299

8,299

R-squared

0.138

0.136

0.139

Standard errors in parentheses

*** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1

浜?????绌剁?璁?/span>

??璧?娲诲?ㄣ?????版椿?ㄦ???????板??浼?涓??板??跨?癸???缁?浣??板?ㄤ?涓???缁╂??澧??裤??????涓昏???杩???绌跺?ㄦ??璧?????????璧?寮哄害?????拌?藉??涓?涓???寰?涓?璐㈠?″??浣?瀵圭哗????宸???褰卞?????帮?璐㈠?″??浣??ㄤ?????寰?涓???瀵圭哗????宸??锋??姝e????褰卞???崇郴锛???姝わ?浼?涓?瀵逛?璐㈠?″??浣???淇?????搴?璇ヨ拷姹?涓?涓????崇?舵??锛???杩?????浼???璐㈠?″??浣??婚?????跺???ㄧ???锛?浠ユ??ユ??楂?浼?涓?缁╂??锛?淇?杩?浼?涓?璐㈠?″??浣?????灞??板??跨?圭??杞?????

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[1] ??娌?娲?锛?璧甸?筹??$??/span>. ?d?楂?绠¤矗浠讳??┿??璐㈠?″脊?т?浼?涓???璧?????[J]. 娴?姹?宸ュ??澶у?瀛︽?ワ?2018锛?02锛?锛?85-98.

[2] 姣????癸?缈?娣???锛?浣??兼??. 璐㈠?″??浣???浣?浜?浼?涓??????版????????????艰??℃???惰 ??娌荤??浣???/span>[J].??绌朵???灞?绠$??锛?2017锛?29锛?02:锛?锛?82-92.

  • 涓诲????浣?锛?姹?瑗跨??瀹¤????????
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